2008-01-03

Although team statistics are just one piece of a large puzzle a handicapper needs to put together to enjoy success in the NFL Playoffs, they are an important piece, as they can often signify tendencies and overall strength of the various teams. But which stats matter the most to playoff success? To help answer this question, I’ve taken the results of past past postseason games since 1993 and cross-referenced them against the statistics of the teams playing going into that game. The statistical categories considered were some of the most common found at places like StatFox.com and other websites covering the NFL. Here is a list of the categories:

- Won-Lost Records
- Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
- Scoring Differential
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play
- Turnover Differential

Considering the simplistic nature of this study, I didn’t expect to find any goldmines in looking for the records of teams holding edges in these statistical categories going into playoff games. However, I was able to uncover six different successful angles that have won at rates better than 55% since ’93. I will go through those shortly, listing the teams qualifying on wildcard weekend. First, here’s a look at the recipe to winning playoff games:

Trends of Teams from Stats Recorded during a Playoff Game
There are three key statistical angles that winning playoff teams generally possess: more rushing yards, more yards per pass attempt, and fewer turnovers in that game. The turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 113-21-3 ATS (84.3%). Similarly, teams that rush for more yards in a playoff game are 121-35 ATS (77.6%). Naturally one could argue that the team that is ahead will run the ball more, but still it is key to know which team can better control the line of scrimmage. Finally, teams that average more yards per pass attempt, or those that create more big plays through the air, have compiled a mark of 110-46 ATS (70.5%) in playoff games. Big plays via the passing game give teams leads, which in turn allow them to run the ball more and avoid turnovers. When you combine the factors and find teams that have edges in all three key statistical aspects, the records go to 73-2 SU & 66-6-1 ATS (91.7%). In fact, home teams that have enjoyed edges in all three have a perfect record of 53-0 SU since 1993 in the playoffs! I can’t stress enough how important it is to have a strong game simulator, such as the one on FoxSheets.com, on your side to help you project these key rushing, passing, and turnover statistics in a game.

Statistical Angles of Teams Heading into a Playoff Game
I’ve discussed on several occasions so far how difficult it is to project statistics in a game, even for the sharpest of handicappers. Therefore, it’s usually a more common exercise to utilize historically successful statistical angles that can be easily applied by looking at the stats that a team has accumulated heading into a game. Naturally, the records of these angles won’t be as glaringly potent as those above, but they can still prove valuable to a handicapper. In fact, they will probably be a step up for “Joe Public”, who does his handicapping by reading the morning paper. Of the categories listed earlier, here are those that won at better than a 55% rate ATS, along with the teams qualifying this weekend.

Won-Lost Records:

- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) are 26-16 ATS (61.9%) in the playoffs since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) and favored in the range of 7-9.5 points are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None
- Since ’00, road teams in the playoffs that have a better or equal record to the home team are 12-7 ATS (63.2%).
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: NY Giants, Jacksonville
- Over the last eight playoff seasons, home teams with a winning percentage edge of .165 or more (16.5%) over their road opponent are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS (72.7%).
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None

Scoring Statistics

Offensive Points Per Game
• Teams with an offensive points per game edge going into a playoff game are 79-64 ATS, or 55.3% since ‘93. However, since ’00, that record is just 40-38 ATS for 51.2%.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Diego

Rushing Statistics

Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
• Teams with a rushing yards per game edge on defense going into a playoff game are 79-64 ATS, or 55.2% since ’93, showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs offensive rushing attacks. Since ’00, that record is 45-34 ATS for 57.0%, showing the importance of a stout rush defense has increased in recent years.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Washington, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Tennessee

Defensive Yards Per Rush
• Teams with a Yards Per Rush edge on defense going into a playoff game are 75-55 ATS, or 57.7% since ’93, again showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs any offensive rushing numbers. Since ’00, that record is 44-32 ATS for 57.9%, showing that defensive YPR has indeed proven a key stat to keep an eye on in recent postseasons.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Tennessee

Passing Statistics

Offensive Passing Yards Per Game
• Teams with a passing yards per game edge on offense going into a playoff game are 80-63 ATS, or 55.9% since ’93, an improvement of 4.9% over rushing yardage. Since ’00, that record improves to 46-32 ATS for 58.9%, showing that passing is clearly becoming a more important ingredient to playoff success.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Diego

Offensive Yards Per Pass
• Teams with a yards per pass edge on offense going into a playoff game are 75-60 ATS, or 55.5% since ’93, very similar to the straight yardage calculation for
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Diego

Yards Per Play Statistics

Offensive Yards Per Play
• Teams with a yards per play edge on offense going into a playoff game are 81-61 ATS, or 57.0% since ’93, adding another fairly successful stat category to our postseason handicapping arsenal. Since ’00, that record drops slightly to 44-34 ATS for 56.4%, but still at a success rate that would net profitability each playoff year.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Diego

Summary
The fact that four of our top six categories are offensive statistics dispels the notion that “defense wins championships”. Naturally, the next task is to combine the top categories to see if teams enjoying edges in more than one successful statistic enjoy further success. Incidentally, teams enjoying an edge in ALL SIX of these categories are 18-7 ATS since ’93 in the playoffs, including 14-2 ATS in the divisional round.

Here are five successful playoff stat combos that achieved better than 60% ATS success in our study:

* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game are 43-28 ATS (60.5%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: NY Giants

* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Yards Per Rush are 36-18 ATS (66.7%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: None

* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Passing Yards Per Game are 35-19 ATS (64.8%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Tampa Bay

* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Pass Yards Per Attempt are 32-16 ATS (66.7%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Tampa Bay

* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Yards Per Play are 32-13 ATS (71.1%) since ’93.
** Qualifying Plays for ’07-08 Wildcard Weekend: Tampa Bay