2008-10-10

With four teams again on bye week, the Sunday and Monday NFL betting board features 14 games to choose from. On the early afternoon slate for Sunday, eight of those 14 games will kickoff. Among the highlight games scheduled for noon eastern kickoffs are Baltimore-Indianapolis, Cincinnati-NY Jets, Carolina-Tampa Bay, and Chicago-Atlanta. Here’s is a quick look at each game with some key betting tidbits to consider. Be sure to check the Team Statistics, Betting Trends, and Live Odds pages for the latest information.

(205) BALTIMORE at (206) INDIANAPOLIS (-4, 38.5)
Both Baltimore & Indianapolis are off thrilling games that evened their records at 2-2 heading into Sunday’s contest. The Ravens came up short at home against Tennessee, 13-10. Ironically that was a game the Colts would have loved to see the Ravens hang on to. At the same time, HC Tony Dungy’s team rallied from a 17-point deficit late in the 4th quarter to win at Houston. Hoping to keep pace with red hot Tennessee, Indianapolis will aim for its first win at Lucas Oil Stadium and a 6th straight win over the Ravens. The last three meeting have been in Baltimore so this will be the first time the Ravens have visited Indy since ’04. Indy is on a 8-1 ATS run vs. good defensive teams yielding less than 17 PPG. Baltimore is 2-10 ATS in its L12 off a loss.
* StatFox Power Rating says Indianapolis by 9

(207) CINCINNATI at (208) NY JETS (-6, 44.5)
Off their open date, the Jets have had two weeks to enjoy the huge 56-point outburst and victory over Arizona. If history is any indication, the celebration for Brett Favre & co. could last even longer, as New York has been great out of the bye week, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their L6 in that scenario. The under is also on an 11-1 run in Jets’ post-bye week games. Favre is completing an incredible 70.2% of his passes so far. The other thing going for HC Eric Mangini’s team is that they are hosting the winless Bengals. Marvin Lewis is on as hot of a seat as any coach in the NFL right now. His teams are just 2-8 ATS in their L10 games vs. teams connecting on more than 64% of their passes. The favorite is 3-0 SU & ATS in the L3 meetings between these teams.
* StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says NY Jets by 7

(209) CAROLINA at (210) TAMPA BAY (-1.5, 36.5)
With as well as the NFC South Division has been playing so far this year, Sunday’s game between Carolina and Tampa Bay could prove important. All four teams in the division are capable of winning it at this point, so the head-to-head games figure to have a big say in which team eventually does. As is customary in this division, the underdog in this series has held the edge, going 9-4 ATS in the L13 meetings. Most often that has been Carolina, as it owns a 9-5 SU & 10-4 ATS edge in the L14, including five straight wins in Tampa. That makes up a good portion of HC John Fox’s 14-4 ATS record in road divisional games. His teams are also 25-11 ATS as road dogs. Tampa Bay is on an 8-2 run over at home vs. division foes, and 6-2 ATS at home coming off a road game.
* StatFox Forecaster says Tampa Bay 18, Carolina 17

(213) CHICAGO (-3, 43.5) at (214) ATLANTA
After combining to win just 11 games a year ago, few experts had Chicago and Atlanta pegged for playoff contention in 2008, yet their week 6 meeting will be one of the more influential NFC games on the board. Both teams are 3-2 to this point and coming off of road wins. Atlanta heads into its open date after this game, and is looking to extend a 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS record in that scenario since ’01. The Falcons are also looking for a fourth consecutive SU & ATS win at home overall. The secret to the surge has been their rushing attack, averaging 180.2 YPG in the first five. Ironically, Chicago is 23-8 ATS since ’92 versus good rushing teams averaging more than 130 RYPG, including 6-0 ATS under Lovie Smith. The Bears are also on a 3-0-1 ATS run on the road.
* StatFox Prediction: Atlanta covers